One storm system pulling away from the region... another one in the formative stages that will impact our region Thursday overnight and Friday of this week.
This next storm system is going to be complicated one to say the least and may not really show "its hand" (i.e. track) until Thursday !
Here's the set up.... a trough over southern Canada and the central US is expected to slowly push east and amplify at the same time. What makes things especially difficult is we are dealing with a southern stream shortwave and a strong piece of energy in the northern stream.
The latest model runs continue their idea of phasing occurring between the streams. The big question is.... where will the phasing occur ??? This will mean everything as far as the storm track is concerned and that will dictate what type of precip we will get out of this thing. Both the latest (00z) runs of the NAM and the GFS are in pretty good agreement with where the phasing occurs - over the Ohio Valley - although originally the NAM is stronger with its northern (trailing) stream short and farther west but its phasing occurs in the same basic region.
This next storm system is going to be complicated one to say the least and may not really show "its hand" (i.e. track) until Thursday !
Here's the set up.... a trough over southern Canada and the central US is expected to slowly push east and amplify at the same time. What makes things especially difficult is we are dealing with a southern stream shortwave and a strong piece of energy in the northern stream.
The latest model runs continue their idea of phasing occurring between the streams. The big question is.... where will the phasing occur ??? This will mean everything as far as the storm track is concerned and that will dictate what type of precip we will get out of this thing. Both the latest (00z) runs of the NAM and the GFS are in pretty good agreement with where the phasing occurs - over the Ohio Valley - although originally the NAM is stronger with its northern (trailing) stream short and farther west but its phasing occurs in the same basic region.
At this time... no doubt, there is a decent potential for accumulating snow across the area late Thursday night into Friday - and it could (could) be a pretty big snow for some.
What is bothering me (and these "bother points" are very similar to those of this most recent storm) is 1) persistence & 2) a fairly large western shift in the latest model runs from those of 12 and 18z.
Persistence: I've argued this all season... So far this winter season, the storm track has been from the lower Mississippi Valley northeast across our area. We have consistantly been on the warm air side of these storms. Again this is the reason why some areas of the Great Lakes have had there snowiest season of all time. Once this pattern is established... it's usually very persistent !
Shift West: There's no denying this, the system in question has indeed shifted farther west from earlier runs - (closer to the "persistent" track). I would not be a bit surprised to see this westward shift in the track continuing.
So here's the bottom line. Another storm system is expected for Thursday Night and Friday.
At this time, we are calling for snow (some rain possible at onset until the entire column cools) developing later Thursday night and continuing Friday. There's definitely a potential for accumulating snow (and it could quite substantial) across our area.
Of course, as any credible met would say, at this time it's way too early to talk accumulation numbers because of all the uncertainties still involved with this system.
What is bothering me (and these "bother points" are very similar to those of this most recent storm) is 1) persistence & 2) a fairly large western shift in the latest model runs from those of 12 and 18z.
Persistence: I've argued this all season... So far this winter season, the storm track has been from the lower Mississippi Valley northeast across our area. We have consistantly been on the warm air side of these storms. Again this is the reason why some areas of the Great Lakes have had there snowiest season of all time. Once this pattern is established... it's usually very persistent !
Shift West: There's no denying this, the system in question has indeed shifted farther west from earlier runs - (closer to the "persistent" track). I would not be a bit surprised to see this westward shift in the track continuing.
So here's the bottom line. Another storm system is expected for Thursday Night and Friday.
At this time, we are calling for snow (some rain possible at onset until the entire column cools) developing later Thursday night and continuing Friday. There's definitely a potential for accumulating snow (and it could quite substantial) across our area.
Of course, as any credible met would say, at this time it's way too early to talk accumulation numbers because of all the uncertainties still involved with this system.
We will of course keep you updated and have a much better handle on this system over the next 24 to 36 hours.
In the meantime. we will get a chance to dry out the next couple of days.
Have a great night all
Later:
Jay
In the meantime. we will get a chance to dry out the next couple of days.
Have a great night all
Later:
Jay
1 comment:
jay.. your the best. i love reading your blogs! thanks so much
what are you thinking (amounts) for this snow on friday?
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