No doubt, the pulling out of the air continues.... although the new data, (12z runs) are starting to finally come into better agreement. A big snowstorm is on the way for parts of the NewsChannel 32 viewing area !! It appears enough cold air will be in place for a wintry mix going to snow - with significant accumulations likely.
I'm going to head to work now to really dive into the data so I can have the latest stuff for you during our evening newscasts, but at a quick glance the new data is suggesting 6 to 12 inches of snow from near the Ohio River and points northwest (i.e. Louisville on north) with a narrow ribbon of 3 to 6" just south of Louisville, and 1 to 3 farther south.
Check out the latest model snow charts from this morning's 12z data.....
I'm going to head to work now to really dive into the data so I can have the latest stuff for you during our evening newscasts, but at a quick glance the new data is suggesting 6 to 12 inches of snow from near the Ohio River and points northwest (i.e. Louisville on north) with a narrow ribbon of 3 to 6" just south of Louisville, and 1 to 3 farther south.
Check out the latest model snow charts from this morning's 12z data.....
Alright, gonna get going to work... and yes... the data could still change somewhat. I said the following in a response to a comment on the previous post and it really brings things into perspective as to how difficult these storms can be especially when that snow/ice/snow rain is expected to be right over the viewing area.......
"If a storm is still 1000 miles southwest of us and the exact track is off by just 5%, that would be a 50 miles deviation by the time it gets here !! And that's 50 miles in either direction - that's as big as our entire viewing area !! Still that would mean the data/forecast was 95% accurate - that's an A by any standards - but with winter weather - sometimes the viewers don't see it that way"
2 comments:
95% is an A by my standards too! You're right, the track of the storm is always key to snowfall totals in the available cold air and severe weather in the warm sector! This storm is going to have it all from severe storms in the Deep South/Mid-Atlantic to heavy snows in Kentuckiana!
I'm keeping in mind though forecasting a low yet to develop can make one pull their hair out trying to nail it down this far in advance.
You mentioned persistence this winter in a previous discussion. Compared to storm patterns/tracks this winter, the location of the negatively tilted 300mb digging trough finally appears to want to stay south and east. As the low forms ahead of the trough and 500 mb vorticity it will strengthen. Seems to me we'll be able to put some of this moisture to good use over the cold air in place. No WAA is going to mess with us this time!
To think, we had to wait till March for things to come together. That's the Ohio Valley for ya!
Hope the kids are well rested and feeling better. I'm sure they'd like to get out and do some sledding this weekend!
Oh, do you think Bob will take it easy driving this time?
All great points and I agree on every one of them... The thing about a March snow... it will likely be all gone a few days later. Check out the new 00z Fri GFS. Talk about perfect for a big snow... WAA snow Friday, with the def zone Friday night/early Saturday. Been looking for instabilty (CSI), but haven't found much ... what about you ??
As for Bob, I'm going to send him for an interstate check at 2am Saturday morning and tell him to see how fast he can go !! Just kidding, Bob is an awesome guy and a great Met, he just has to slow down a bit on those icy roads.
Thanks for the comment my friend
Jay
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