No doubt, I am real happy as to how this weather forecast has worked out - especially for the storm coming in early this week. Ever since last Wednesday, when others in this market were hyping it up and saying there was the possibility of 20 inches of snow here, we were just about the only one (at least that early) to say this storm would probably trend northwest from its original forecast position and give us more rain than anything else. Kudos to NWS folks as well as they came on board and didn't buy into the snow hype either as of last Friday.
Okay, let's get to the latest stuff then...
Frontal boundary currently out west and producing SVR in the central and southern plains states will continue to slide east the next 24 hours. Fropa looks to be Monday evening. I think much of Monday will be dry, windy and warm again with temperatures in the upper 60 to near 70 by midday and early afternoon. Much of the rain with this frontal boundary will be post frontal... Notice on the three following charts how the rain is immediately behind the front...
This front will continue to work slowly southeast Monday evening but will eventually stall as upper flow backs in response to main jet energy (strong H5 short pushing in our direction).
As the upper wave approaches, sfc low pressure will rapidly intensify on the boundary to our south, southwest. Intense WAA/overrunning will setup over the region Monday night.
Rain (heavy at times) will develop over the region - some thunder will be possible but it look to me the greatest threat for any strong / severe weather will stay well south. Note SPC's moderate threat - looks good to me.
Some hydro (flooding) issues will be possible as rainfall will likely be in the 1 to 3 inch range.
Notice both NAM & GFS's accum precip charts.
Heavy rain threat will end, however, Tuesday morning as H7 dry slot works over the region.
I even think we could see peeks of sunshine Tuesday midday - from near Louisville but especially points south and east. MLCAPEs are expected to reach 200 to 400 - as upper system drifts northeast across the area. Scattered showers will continue with even some thunder and lightning possible. If (IF) we can manage to pop some low topped convection, a few of the stronger cells may have some hail - we'll watch it close.
Entire system continues to work rapidly northeast later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Fairly strong CAA will set up over the area at this time - but by the time temps drop to a level that's cold enough for decent ice crystal generation most of the moisture will be gone. Bottom line only a few flurries possible at best - overnight Tuesday, but most locations won't see much snow flurry activity at all !!
Wednesday looks to be quiet and pleasant with a good dose of sunshine and temperatures back into the 50s !! Not Bad.
Have a great night,
Later:
Jay
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