Monday late night update

Hi everyone... I know, I know... it's been forever since I last posted. Really sorry about that - as you know from my lasts posts during the big snowstorm, my kids (all of them) got pretty sick. Guess what ???? It hit me like a ton of bricks... I don't know - I wash my hands religiously - it's my wife who teaches and is around thousands of germs every day - who gets it ??? not her - no, it was me !! Oh well, I'm glad she didn't get sick because this was a nasty one !
Feelin' better now so let's talk weather.

Another big - very wet system on the way for the Ohio Valley. Looking at the latest guidance, the flood watch that NWS has out for the NW half of the viewing area looks good. I do think areas north and northwest of Louisville will get the heaviest totals from this storm. Great agreement in amounts and placement with the greater than 4 inch band - (the yellow shades) between the NAM and GFS


















Great overrunning event setting up for areas north of the Ohio River through Tuesday evening.

Then during the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday, frontal boundary will get kicked southeast a bit into Kentucky as shortwave travels through Great Lakes. The front will stall or move very slow, however, due to another sfc low forming on the boundary to our south/southwest in response to strong H5 shortwave moving east, northeast into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

It looks to me that the heaviest rain for Louisville and points south and east will come late Tuesday night into Wednesday as main system comes. Heavy rainfall potential will ease by Wednesday afternoon but the deformation zone will ensure a steady rain and cold temperatures are on tap - although a well defined dry slot at H7 will cut off steady rainfall for the southern half of the viewing area. BTW, i'm NOT expecting any severe weather with this system over our region.









System is out of here for Thursday and Good Friday - a couple of fast moving systems will pass generally north of us those two days - giving us intervals of clouds but also some pretty mild temperatures.... Thursday looks to be well into the 50s and on Good Friday we'll see temperatures back into the 60s !!

Have a great night and Tuesday all.
Later:
Jay