Oh, boy here we go ....... the hype is already starting with some folks !! The GFS 6 and 7 day fcst is out and painting a rain to snow scenario - and during the time of snowfall putting down quite a bit in our area... I'm a snow lover too but to go out and say possible amounts for a storm that clearly has not even formed and disappears on one run only to reappear on the next ....!!!!
I mean c'mon, that's just hype (certainly not meteorology) but just hype!!.
So let's talk real weather for a second...
First of all, a clipper type system will be tracking southeast across the Great Lakes region Thursday night through Friday. Strong WAA will set up across the Ohio Valley starting tomorrow into tomorrow night. After some sunshine Thursday morning, mid and high level moisture will rapidly begin increasing over the area. Clouds will continue to thicken Thursday night. As the ceilings lower, some patchy light precipitaion will be possible after midnight. If the precip begins early enough, there may be some wet snow at the onset before it quickly goes over to all rain late Thursday night into Friday - especially north and northeast of Louisville.
A vort lobe will sweep the Ohio Valley on Friday with a decent area of showers ahead of it. During the afternoon, rapid drying at H7 and above will bring a quick end to the rain.
I mean c'mon, that's just hype (certainly not meteorology) but just hype!!.
So let's talk real weather for a second...
First of all, a clipper type system will be tracking southeast across the Great Lakes region Thursday night through Friday. Strong WAA will set up across the Ohio Valley starting tomorrow into tomorrow night. After some sunshine Thursday morning, mid and high level moisture will rapidly begin increasing over the area. Clouds will continue to thicken Thursday night. As the ceilings lower, some patchy light precipitaion will be possible after midnight. If the precip begins early enough, there may be some wet snow at the onset before it quickly goes over to all rain late Thursday night into Friday - especially north and northeast of Louisville.
A vort lobe will sweep the Ohio Valley on Friday with a decent area of showers ahead of it. During the afternoon, rapid drying at H7 and above will bring a quick end to the rain.
The system clears the Ohio Valley just in time to be us a nice first weekend of March. Cool for Saturday but massive WAA Saturday night will bring a nice warm up for Sunday.
Alright, this brings me to the system for next week. First of all, those folks that are talking massive snow for Louisville next week are looking at the GFS only - NOT smart. The GFS has been all over the place with next week's potential system - and I mean all over !! At this time the only thing the GFS is good for is saying that a storm system is possible early next week - and that's IT.
Okay so what about the other MRF models. The Euro, Canadian, UKMET, Nogaps, all suggest substantial energy in both streams. Kind of looks like the northern stream energy will shove a frontal boundary through the region during the Monday time frame with good chances for rain. This frontal boundary will slow sigificantly as the upper flow begins backing in response to the southern energy working east through Texas. Cyclogenisis should occur on the boundary over the lower Mississippi valley and then the low working northeast towards us. At this time most of the models track the upper energy and surface low to out southeast. Yes, that is typically a good track for snow here but there are a couple of things bothering me with this track. 1) Persistance....every storm coming from the southwest this year has either gone right over us or just north. That's why there's been record snow in the upper midwest this season - I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see this thing trending north as we get closer to the actual event. 2) Lack of cold air....??? Notice that this southern system is pretty far south of the polar stream. Many of the MRF models have the polar stream running well north across Canada. That ain't good if you want a good, deep cold air source for a great big winter storm - (I would like to see the polar stream diving into the eastern Lakes / Eastern Ohio valley for substantial cold air) So.... this storm is going to almost have to generate its own cold air. And yes, big upper-level storms can do this - but typically the snow area with systems like this are relatively small in size (with regards to typical synoptic scale snowstorms) and found very close to the H5 circulation (i.e. under the low).
So is there a chance for some snow with this system - sure there is, how much ?? and will it be a massive amount ???? no idea because it is way too early to even suggest it and is, well... frankly, just plain irresponsible.
We'll watch it close and keep you updated - without the hype.
Have a great thursday
Jay
Okay so what about the other MRF models. The Euro, Canadian, UKMET, Nogaps, all suggest substantial energy in both streams. Kind of looks like the northern stream energy will shove a frontal boundary through the region during the Monday time frame with good chances for rain. This frontal boundary will slow sigificantly as the upper flow begins backing in response to the southern energy working east through Texas. Cyclogenisis should occur on the boundary over the lower Mississippi valley and then the low working northeast towards us. At this time most of the models track the upper energy and surface low to out southeast. Yes, that is typically a good track for snow here but there are a couple of things bothering me with this track. 1) Persistance....every storm coming from the southwest this year has either gone right over us or just north. That's why there's been record snow in the upper midwest this season - I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see this thing trending north as we get closer to the actual event. 2) Lack of cold air....??? Notice that this southern system is pretty far south of the polar stream. Many of the MRF models have the polar stream running well north across Canada. That ain't good if you want a good, deep cold air source for a great big winter storm - (I would like to see the polar stream diving into the eastern Lakes / Eastern Ohio valley for substantial cold air) So.... this storm is going to almost have to generate its own cold air. And yes, big upper-level storms can do this - but typically the snow area with systems like this are relatively small in size (with regards to typical synoptic scale snowstorms) and found very close to the H5 circulation (i.e. under the low).
So is there a chance for some snow with this system - sure there is, how much ?? and will it be a massive amount ???? no idea because it is way too early to even suggest it and is, well... frankly, just plain irresponsible.
We'll watch it close and keep you updated - without the hype.
Have a great thursday
Jay
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