Winter weather event still on target for Thursday afternoon and evening....
Arctic high has bulit into the region bringing some very cold air to the Ohio Valley. This Arctic air mass won't last long however, and it will be eroded away from top to bottom across the region.
In other words, a strong H5 short in the southern stream and a potent H5 short in the northern stream will combine to bring a large area of WAA and overrunning cloudiness and precip to the area starting Thursday afternoon and lasting into Friday.
Arctic high has bulit into the region bringing some very cold air to the Ohio Valley. This Arctic air mass won't last long however, and it will be eroded away from top to bottom across the region.
In other words, a strong H5 short in the southern stream and a potent H5 short in the northern stream will combine to bring a large area of WAA and overrunning cloudiness and precip to the area starting Thursday afternoon and lasting into Friday.
Although surface temperatures will be plenty cold and below freezing, I don't think there will be much snow with this event. Moderate WAA will spread warmer air aloft into the Ohio Valley Thursday. At the onset of the precip, there will likely be some sleet and even a few flakes mixed in (better chances for the snow north of Louisville), but as the WAA continues, a rather large region (~920 to 800mb) will be well above critcal by 00Z Friday with that zone increasing to a nearly 200mb thick layer (950 to 750mb) of above critical temps by 03Z Friday!
Bottomline... freezing rain !!! As far as the wintry weather is concerned, freezing rain should be the primary p-type through midnight Thursday night. After midnight, the WAA will win out and warm sfc temps above critical ending the freezing rain in Louisville and then in the far northern areas by daybreak Friday.
Some icing is expected along and north of a E'town to Bardstown line. Ice accumulations will be quite light down near the E'town and Bardstown areas but increase upwards to near a 1/4 inch closer to Louisville and perhaps as much as a 1/2 inch along and north of a Jasper, IN to Madison, IN line. The far southern regions area may have a little sleet or light freezing rain at the onset Thursday afternoon, but temperatures will quickly go above above freezing keeping any icing to a minimum.
Good ole' fashion rainfall is expected everywhere for Friday washing much of the icing away.
Have a great night and Thursday and be careful when traveling.
Later:
Jay
Some icing is expected along and north of a E'town to Bardstown line. Ice accumulations will be quite light down near the E'town and Bardstown areas but increase upwards to near a 1/4 inch closer to Louisville and perhaps as much as a 1/2 inch along and north of a Jasper, IN to Madison, IN line. The far southern regions area may have a little sleet or light freezing rain at the onset Thursday afternoon, but temperatures will quickly go above above freezing keeping any icing to a minimum.
Good ole' fashion rainfall is expected everywhere for Friday washing much of the icing away.
Have a great night and Thursday and be careful when traveling.
Later:
Jay
2 comments:
Great discussion and analysis over the last few days. It resulted in a great call JC. Hopefully most of the zr will change over to r by the time you head home tonight!
Don't have much time to banter with you this morning. Just gonna sit back and stay off the roads this afternoon.
Be Safe!
Thank you my friend... I like your idea of gettin' some r&r while staying at home this afternoon...
Stay safe and be well
Jay
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