Wednesday Morning Update (Another Winter Event ?)

Wow, that was kind of a neat snowfall this morning - and yes flurries were expected but that was a little more than just flurries. Anywhere from 1/2 to locally 1 inch of snow came down with that burst this morning.... you're right - not a huge amount but certainly more than what I was expecting !! Occasional flurries and light snow showers will continue into afternoon as temperatures in the cloud layer are anywhere from -12 to -15C (i.e. good ice crystal generation layer).
Now the next system... ALL models have an arctic boundary moving south through the region on Friday. What happens after frontal passage is where the models diverge. The NAM sets up a decent overrunning event for our area Late Friday into Friday night and spits out a decent amount of snow over us (another 3 to 6 inches !!). The GFS is more reserved and only has a brief period of light snow and flurries with the front. So which one is correct ??? Great question !! It looks to me that the NAM is way overdone on its snow amounts for the region and we'll see an event more like the GFS is painting. What scares me is the NAM absolutely nailed this last winter event - was the first to indicate snow and ice here - and stayed consistant. So, it does seems to have a good handle on the current pattern.
But my problem with the NAM is simply this, after the arctic boundary passes through, why are we getting such good overrunning occurring? I realize that there is an upper H5 low spinning off to our west but that is way off to our west - in New Mexico / W. Texas West !! As a matter of fact, there's even ridging occurring at H5 & H7 across the lower/mid Mississippi valley Friday evening. That does not support a good LLJ setup for our region. So where's all the moisture coming from ??? That's a major concern to me with the NAM solution. It does appear we'll have some lift across the region - mainly due to the RRQ of the upper jet across the Great Lakes. But again .. NO good moisture transport into the region. So the bottom line I'm leaning more towards the GFS on this one - which does have support from various other models as it seems the NAM is the outlyer here and its QPF output does not really match up with what the dynamics are saying.






























At this time, I'd have to say sprinkles/patchy light rain changing to a little light snow/flurries for the Friday / Friday night event with little or no accumulations. That's the way I see it right now anyway...
Thoughts.......??????