Well, the first fast-moving system is sliding through the region tonight / early tomorrow.
Patchy light snow and flurries across about the northeast half of the viewing area... Certainly not a big storm but decent WAA in the low layers creating decent (short-lived) verticals for a brief period of the light snow and flurries. Did a detailed analysis of the low layers earlier tonight just as the new 00z NAM and RUC came down... Best little snow area seemed to be located along and north of the H95 front / low track. That would place the 1 to 2 inch amounts basically along and north of a Bedford / Mitchell, IN to Madison, IN line. South of that line and closer to Louisville... a dusting to less than 1 inch amounts expected.
Strong CAA behind this little clipper for Wednesday will ensure falling afternoon temps back into the 20s.
Patchy light snow and flurries across about the northeast half of the viewing area... Certainly not a big storm but decent WAA in the low layers creating decent (short-lived) verticals for a brief period of the light snow and flurries. Did a detailed analysis of the low layers earlier tonight just as the new 00z NAM and RUC came down... Best little snow area seemed to be located along and north of the H95 front / low track. That would place the 1 to 2 inch amounts basically along and north of a Bedford / Mitchell, IN to Madison, IN line. South of that line and closer to Louisville... a dusting to less than 1 inch amounts expected.
Strong CAA behind this little clipper for Wednesday will ensure falling afternoon temps back into the 20s.
Upper level convergence across the northern / eastern Ohio Valley Wednesday night should dictate as to where the cold high pressure will build. Low layers of the atmosphere will chill quite nicely in advance of the next southern stream shortwave.
New 00z runs are forecasting light wintry precip to develop here for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Right now that looks okay to me.... I don't think it'll be all that heavy. LLJ really not all that strong - generally 30 to 35kts at H85. Looks decent considering the H5 shortwave is still way back in Eastern NM, west TX at 00z Friday. Heck, there's even a shortwave ridge off to our west across the lower Mississippi valley north into Southeast NE. If anything, the LLJ speeds MAY be overdone and the overrunning precip across our area end up being lighter than what the models are suggesting. Even so, the precip that does occur Thursday afternoon and evening will be messy with the low level cold air in place. Looks like a light snow scenario to start then a rather quick transition to a brief period of sleet before we go over to light freezing rain / freezing drizzle. It appears enough low level warming will take place late Thursday night to change the freezing precip to a cold rain.
At this time it does not look like a lot of icing will take place but.... as you know, it doesn't take much to make a mess on the roadways...
let me know your thoughts ....
Take care and have great Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Later:
Jay
let me know your thoughts ....
Take care and have great Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Later:
Jay
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