NO worries with big snow from this system though... sorry snow lovers, as a matter of fact the big snow with this system.... surprise - surprise (Northern MO, Eastern IA, far NW IL and Wisconsin - again (and Madison, WI has already set their record for the snowiest season of all time !)
As H5 low get "kicked" northeast, clouds will rapidly thicken across the area Saturday night. Strong WAA pattern to set up increasing shower chances by Sunday morning... with even some elevated thunderstorms possible across IL and IN on the nose of the LLJ where theta-e advection will be maxed out.
Gotta say, the NAM is painting an interesting scenario for us... it seems to be about 6 hours slower with the cold front and does manage to develop some instability over our area later Sunday afternoon / Sunday evening -
Check out the sfc based LI's, sfc based cape, and MLCAPEs - all more than adequate for some convection...
Now check out the H9 and H85 winds.... 75 kts !!!!!!!! - how about the 0 to 1 k Helicity - off the charts !!!
Bottomline, if the NAM does verify... yep that's right - could be looking at some more strong / severe storms. I'm not totally buying into this just yet - considering the NAM does have a known bias of forecasting too much instability - but then again... look at the pattern so far this year. Let's put it this way, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the SPC eventually put our area in a risk and another round of storms around here. I'll say this, I look for an extremely active severe weather season this Spring with the moderate / strong La Nina that's been in place, the screaming Pacific jet that has been the result of the La Nina, and the current and persistent storm track.
Alright, back to this event, after the front slides through here, whether it be Sunday afternoon as per GFS or Sunday evening as per NAM, temperatures will really fall off by Monday. Progged H85 temps nearing -16C and saturated (good ice crystal growth region (dentrite layer)) - along with the mean H5 trof over our area and the jet axis south - in other words, a great setup for flurries and occasional snow showers...
1 comment:
You were burnin the midnight oil with this update! When do you sleep? :-)
Haven't looked at a lot of data today, but I certainly don't get the same "feel" from this storm like the last two that marched across the region... Not that I'm trying to down play 60kt+ H85 winds transporting enough instability into the region for a few pockets of thunder. I might reconsider my thoughts if we see some sunny patches early to midday Sunday. One thing for sure, I guess we'll be holding on to our hats most of the day!
With that said I guess the current D2 outlook from SPC may eventually stretch the Slight up to Western KY by D1 rollover. How about current D2 Moderate SE TX? Could I be underestimating the strength of the low? Just something I've been asking myself...
Post a Comment