I'm really happy with the forecast we put out Friday for this weekend - sky conditions, temps, precip patterns ... you name it, everything worked out just about perfectly.
Alright let's get to the weather at hand and what is heading our way.
Big storm system currently located across the upper midwest will continue to push rapidly northeast this afternoon into tonight. H7 dryslot is currently overspreading the Ohio Valley with some subsidence behind initial wave of showers. Should see a few breaks in the overcast this afternoon allowing for peeks of sunshine. LLJ continues to crank over the region and with a well mixed atmosphere, sfc winds will stay very gusty. Wind gusts could easily reach 45 mph and be as high as 50 mph!
Diff. PVA and sfc cold front will likely bring scattered showers back into the region later this afternoon into the evening. Instability is very limited however and will likely continue to drop off as somewhat of a dry line surges across the region this afternoon dropping the dew points from the 50s back into the 40s.
Cold front moves through tonight with strong CAA into the region. 6 hour pressure rises suggest winds will stay very gusty this evening with gusts still as high as 40 mph. Upper trough sets up over the region later tonight through Tuesday morning. As low level (H9 - H8) temps continue to drop into the ice crystal generation regions, flurries will become likely as Monday wears on. Monday evenin / night, a vort lobes passing through the upper trough and H85 temps in the dentrite growth region at a time of nearly saturation would suggest an enhancement in the flurries with even some brief heavier snow showers possible. No, not a big snowmaker but certainly a dusting / less than 1 inch possible in areas.
We should see lots of sun Tuesday afternoon as upper jet axis shifts east of the region.
Another strong shortwave will translate through the trough Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (it will stay well north of us but its attending cold front will drift south over the region on Wednesday. Air behind the boundary is polar / arctic in nature as a 1040 high drifts south from Canada towards the Great Lakes and the Upper Ohio Valley.
After this cold air mass moves through, the upper pattern cahnges out west suggest a DEamplification process will be under way. Strong Pacific jet will beat down western ridge cutting off the cold air.
Overall, temperatures will begin a warmup as we go back to average or even above average through next weekend into the beginning of the following week
As pattern shifts back to the warmer setup, a couple of fast moving shortwaves will ride the jet stream towards the Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley. These shorts will enhance the WAA pattern over the area resulting in shower chances for later on Friday and Saturday.
Have a great Sunday and President's Day
Later: Jay
1 comment:
It was a great forecast, Jay! Only thing, I never thought we'd get to 66!
Wow... what a straight south to SW wind will do for ya this time of year.
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