Monday Morning Update

New Month... Same ole' pattern

Borderline moderate to strong la nina cycle is keeping the Pacific jet stream very strong and active with little or no cold air due to an absent polar vortex in the western hemisphere.

What this simply means is.... the storm track that has been very consistant from the southern plains states through the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Eastern Great Lakes states will continue.

Bottomline... Another big storm system with tons of jet stream energy slated to affect our region the next 48 hours. This system will bring flooding rains to areas just north of our region, periods of showers and storms around here - with yet another chance for severe storms Tuesday night.

Very warm and moist air is working rapidly north into the Ohio Valley this morning. This WAA is producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. However, the best mix of instability and wind shear will remain to our west today so I'm not expecting severe weather across our area TODAY.

Very strong frontal boundary will continue to waffle / drift north-just north of the Ohio River today. This will keep the NewsChannel 2 viewing area within a zone of warm southerly breezes resulting in temperatures well above average today and tomorrow - with portions of our area getting very close to 70 degrees on Tuesday. The will also act as the focal region for showers and thunderstorms. There will likely be an area of persistent rain and storms setting up along and just north of the front on Tuesday - this rain combined with the snow melt will result in flooding across central and northern IL as well as central and northern IN.

Sfc low pressure will be developing on the front across eastern OK / western AR as main shortwave energy/jet max starts shifting E,NE from the southern plains states towards the Ohio Valley later on Tuesday.

As the sfc low and attending cold front draw closer, showers and t'storms will increase across all of the Ohio Valley. This system looks like it will affect our area from late evening Tuesday into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Instability will be present but modest at best. In addition, very strong speed and directional wind shear will be present over the region.

Storms and flooding rainfall will be ongoing to our north as mentioned earlier, but another batch of showers and storms is expected to develop late day / evening to our west - and rapidly move E,NE across the viewing area later Tuesday night.

Strong wind shear in place suggests that there will be a decent threat for severe weather. Primary threats would include damaging stright line winds as well as isolated tornadoes - especially along bowing segments or any discrete cells that can form.

SPC day 2 has our region in a MODERATE risk for severe storms..