Looks cold and quiet through Tuesday night... Another Arctic boundary will pass through Wednesday early morning as a clipper type system swings through the Great Lake states and the northern Ohio Valley. The vort max, H85 - H95 lows pass well north of us. Even the sfc low goes north of us... The GFS runs (excluding the new 00z run (haven't seen it yet)) have been spitting out enough QPF here to support some accumulating snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning....???? No way !! I don't buy that solution. I see a few flurries with frontal passage but that's about it. With clipper systems, typically most of the snow is north of the sfc low track with any decent accumulating snows along and north of the H925 low track - and that will be occurring well north of our region.
Cold arctic high builds in for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A shortwave trough will be dropping south through the northern Plains states inthe northern branch. At the same time, a shortwave will be moving through the Texas / southern Plains region in the subtropical jet. As these two features move east, a broad southwesterly WAA flow will set up and point itself towards our area. Bottomline, clouds should rapidly increase later Wednesday night with moisture overruning the cold air in place across the Ohio Valley. East / northeast winds in the boundary layer and thick clouds should ensure that sfc temps stay below freezing throughout the day. An icy mix of sleet and then freezing rain is expected to overspread our area during Thursday afternoon. If the precip starts early enough even some snow will be possible at the onset. It's still a little early to talk about exact precip type, start time, end time, etc... but just know that Thursday (especially afternoon and evening) has the potential to become quite messy with an icy mix across the region.
Enough warming should take place overnight Thursday to change any ice to a cold rain...
We'll keep you posted and I'll have a detailed update with maps/model support tomorrow (Tuesday)
Sorry for the lack of maps tonight but I gotta get home early tonight.
have a great night and stay warm
Later:
Jay
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2 comments:
No worries about the maps...
Yeah, Thursday pm is not looking good if you believe the GFS. Bufkit has a decent area of snow to ice to rain. NAM Bufkit, not so much. I guess there's still a lot to play out and as always the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere are going to make a huge difference to p-type.
Looking at the 18z, 19 Feb 08 runs of both GFS and NGM at 48 to 54 hours out I'm left wondering if the southwestern fringe of cold high pressure will stick around long enough or begin to pull/erode away. Either way I think we'll get something frozen and it'll be messy.
I agree on all accounts... would think with the upper level convergence over the northern / northeastern areas of the Ohio Valley, that should be enough to keep the cold high in place long enough for some wintry / messy precip. In really looking at things....it looks like a very much scaled down version of what happened last week.
take care my friend
Jay
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