Friday Midday Update

That was an interesting 6 hour period... At around 2am last night it was a r-/s- mix. This morning at 8am, I looked out my window and saw 2 CGs and had about 20 seconds of marble sized hail !!. That's some serious changes in our atmosphere. Actually strong WAA responsible for the above mentioned events.
Clipper system slides to our northeast today. Trailing cold front expected to slip through here this evening. But by far, the coldest air with this system will bypass our region to the northeast.
The weekend looks pretty good. Nice way to welcome in the new month ! Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will control our weather pattern for the weekend.

Sfc high on top of us tomorrow ensuring lots of sunshine with just a few mid/high clouds expected later in the day and evening.

Sfc high shifts east Saturday night allowing for a massive WAA pattern to set up over the Ohio Valley. On Sunday, breezy south winds will warm our temps easily into the upper 50s / low 60s.
I do think we will see an increase in cloud cover as H9 & H85 moisture values progged to jump to 90% or better by midday (BKN stratoCu deck likely Sunday afternoon)

Alright, that's leads me to early next week. A frontal boundary will slowly approach from the west. The front is progged to slip through here (slowly) Monday afternoon. Shower chances will increase at this time as most if not all the rain is expected to be post frontal.

Front will stall very close to us (likely just east) as upper flow backs in response to strong H5 short developing in the southern stream. This shortwave will make for a very wet Monday night and Tuesday across the region - as a matter of fact we could be looking at flooding issues with this thing.

Sfc low pressure will develop on the boundary over the lower MS valley and rapidly deepen as it works northeast towards the Ohio Valley.

Massive overrunning / WAA will develop with rain and thunderstorm activity exploding over the region Monday night into Tuesday - Looks to me that the greatest potential for SVR will be to our south, but no doubt elevated type storms are likely close to us (i.e. hail producers ??)

System expected to bomb out over us. Exact track is still of course up in the air but will become more clear by Saturday afternoon. At this time, sfc system looks to track just southeast of our region with the upper system pretty much right over us.

This track would mean a mainly rain event for the local area. Yes, still a chance for snow on the backside, but it would be quite light if this track pans out. The big snow would take place off to our west and northwest. Those same areas that have gotten hammered this season so far... look to be in line again - only this one could be the biggest of their season so far with even blizzard conditions a real possibility - man, they have all the luck !! - You can tell I'm a snow lover.

We'll certainly keep you posted, in the meantime, have a wonderful weekend and enjoy the warm up !!

Later
Jay