Still looking at an active pattern for Sunday and early next week.
Southwestern low will be ejecting northeast towards Missouri by Sunday as phasing also takes place between the northern and southern streams. All cyclone centers with this feature go west of us and then the system goes just about vertically stacked as it matures over Missouri.
This will put us into the warmer air for Sunday. It looks to me that we will have a round of showers late Saturday night into Sunday morning...
Then we get dry slotted - Check out the H7 chart 18z Sunday. Some sunshine possible (bkn stratoCu type sky) Sunday early afternoon and windy as H9 and H85 LLJ cranks over the region. Could easily see temps close to 60 on Sunday ! Still a chance for some convection with zone of good diff PVA and sfc cold front later Sunday afternoon and evening. In the previous post there was a comment from a weather wise individual who said he/she was just "not feeling the severe potential" like that of the previous events.... I agree ! There's some instability later in the day - MLCAPES of <= 250, but by the time that instability arrives - the best wind field has pushed east. Long story short... yeah some thunder possible, but I'm not feeling a big, widespread severe weather outbreak at this time either - fine with me, we need a break - because it is going to be an active Spring season around here as is - we'll watch it close though
I'm still kind of excited about the nearly 100mb thick layer of saturated air at temps that are the good dentrite crystal growth region by later Monday and Monday night. Deep trough over the area, with vort lobes passing through. Looks to be a pretty decent period of light snow and flurries - not a huge storm by any stretch but those big-O-flakes (pretty high ratios) that fall for an extended period of time and can easily whiten the ground with a couple of inches. I love that type of snow !
Tell me your thoughts all and be sure a have a great weekend,
later.. Jay
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