Any shortwaves (in the southern stream) that do round the base of the trough seem to get minored out as they get squished by the fast velocities in the polar jet. I'm not saying that the hope for a big snow this week is completely gone though - (it is a known fact that the GFS has a cold bias and it often weakens southern stream shortwaves way too fast as a result in the medium range), but... there's real no good run to run consistency in any of the medium range models that would support increased confidence in the big snow event for here. If there's any good information to report for winter lovers - at least the temperatures will really start to fall off during the upcoming week and we'll likely see flurries every so often.
A few flurries / snow showers will be likely Tuesday as a strong shortwave passes just to our northeast... cold air dives into the region with this system - to the tune of of -10 C at H85 and nearly saturated.
A couple of more chances for some light snow and/or flurries with the passages of 2 more boundaries -------- the first (a polar front) arrives during the Thursday time frame (even some lt rain will be possible with this one if enough moisture arrives prior to frontal passage the second (an arctic boundary ) arrives during the Friday time period - this front will likely keep our temperatures in the 20s for highs next weekend and lows in the teens (or even single digits in those favored regions that realy cool off!!)
we'll continue to watch it close however, as this is a pattern change that is occurring and the MRF (medium range forecast) guidance notoriously does a less-than-stellar-job in during these transitions.
No comments:
Post a Comment