Tuesday Morning Update

Want big snowfall..... ????? start heading towards the central plains and upper midwest, because it is not going to happen here - at least this week or upcoming weekend.

Going forecast looks to be on target.

we'll be inbetween storm systems for Wednesday night and Thursday. One storm along the Gulf coast and the other and stronger of the two, across the central plains and upper midwest.

The storm to our northwest will become the dominant storm this week. Heavy snowfall will develop with this system from Eastern NE - northeast across Iowa into the upper midwest / western Lakes.

The other storm will hug the Gulf coast and eventually push toward the Carolinas.So, where does this leave us ?? kind of in limbo !

Moisture will begin increasing over our region late Wednesday / Wed night into Thursday.

Some (not a lot) "lift" (i.e. rising motion) will arrive late Wed. night / early Thursday as a weakening shortwave (H5) moves through the broad and strengthening southwesterly that is setting up ahead of the Central plains system and combines with the WAA (warm air advection) in progress.

This moisture and lift will provide us with some patchy LIGHT snow and flurries - and it may actually come down with some light rain mixed in too - because of the fact that this precip will be so light, it may not be heavy enough to completely saturate the column and cool the lowest layers below critical.

This will occur quickly as this batch of light precipitation will end by midday Thursday.

Accumulations of snow????? NOT MUCH. LESS THAN 1 INCH WITH MANY AREAS LITTLE / NO ACCUMULATION.

A cold front front will sweep the region Thursday evening - likely bringing a few flurries back into the Ohio Valley as some colder air slides in behind the frontal passage.

The big dump of cold air is still due to arrive Friday night as an arctic boundary rapidly surges south. This will likely bring flurries and sct'd snow showers to the region and the coldest air of the season so far.

Check out the progged H85 temps from the GFS by 18Z Sat. Still in the -20 to -22C range.

Temps will likely hold in the teens on Saturday and drop to near the single digits Saturday morning and well into the single digits by Sunday morning.

BTW, this will be just the first of perhaps several arctic surges with this pattern. Another surge of arctic air will head for the region next week around the Wednesday time frame.