Tuesday morning (Jan 8th update)

Forecast seems to be right on target... Strong south, southwest winds will continue to blow out ahead of an intensifying system. Winds across the region today will be in the 20 to 40 mph range as a very strong low level jet cranks over the Ohio Valley,

Cold front and upper short wave will shift across the region this evening. Showers and storms are a certainy. Because of the strong wind fields that will be in place over the area, any convection that does manage to fire will likely become severe with the potential for damaging winds. In situations like this, low instability / strong shear, low topped storms seem to be the rule.

Latest model guidance suggests that instability will not be as robust as it was yesterday to our west where 2 fatalities occurred as a result of a tornado outbreak across MO and IL.

It appears at this time that as the cold front surges in from the west this evening, low-topped thunderstorm line segments will develop and move E,NE at nearly 50 to 60 mph !!,

Damaging winds will be likely with any line segment that is able bow out and tapped the greater momentum aloft. Best timing across the NewsChannel 32 viewing area for these storms will be from 7pm to midnight. SPC has all of our region in a slight risk.

Another system is still in the cards for later thursday and thursday night. Surface and upper energy cutting way too far north though to give us any decent snow. Rain will be the dominant precip type - although a few flurries will be possible Friday morning as colder air wraps into the regio behind the storm system.

Finally, weekend system is still a possibility!!! and.... most of the MRF (medium range guidance) is tracking this system in such a way that would be good for some snow... Canadian, ECMWF and many of the GFS ensembles are quite favorable for snow or a rain to snow scenario. The operational GFS is less bullish right now and pretty far south, but as has been the case all this season (so far), these storms seem to actually track farther north than what the models initially suggest. My gut..... there's a decent threat at this time for some wintry weather on Sunday - saty tuned.