Sunday Night Jan 6th

a strong south wind out ahead of an energetic frontal boundary will continue to push unseasonably mild air into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures over the next 2 days (monday and tuesday) will approach the upper 60s and low 70s!

This is the progged sfc pattern for 18z monday., we are well into the warm sector with a strong southerly component. With the sfc, H9, and H85 boundaries well north... good chance we'll see enough mixing on Monday for periods of sunshine from time to time. No rain on Monday... all the forcing will stay well north and well west as we will be well into the warm sector....

Tuesday is a different story...

This is the NAM 48 hour progged sfc chart valid 00z Wed (tuesday evening), strong cold front entering the region with great convergence along the the front... also note in the image below...

strong H5 short moving across the region with H5 jet max pulling across southern MO, Sothern IL, into southwest IN and western KY.

45 Hour NAM (Valid 21Z Tue) svr weather chart (0 to 3 K Hel, Sfc based CAPE, SWEAT's) shows good to decent instability just west of our region... With strong forcing of front and dynamics in region of good instability - especially for Early Jan., storms in a linear fashion should fire to our west and move rapidly eastward - storm motion may be upwards of 50 to 60 mph.

At this time, there is a definite severe threat across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky for Tuesday evening. Look for line segments to develop (with possible bows) resulting in the possibility for damaging wind gusts. With strong wind shear present and SRH's (0 to 3 k) on the order of 300 to 400, any discrete cells that do form have a tornado threat. Best timing for these storms across the WLKY NewsChannel 32 viewing area would be from 7pm to Midnight - Tuesday Evening.

Now, let's talk snow chances...

another energetic storm system comes at us on Thursday afternoon and thursday night.

Here's the 96 hr GFS sfc prog (valid 00Z Friday)

Sfc low passes right over the Ohio River and Louisville - This storm will bring us showers and even the possibilty of a few thunderstorms but as the system passes through and the colder air wraps in, a few flurries will be possible later Thursday night into Friday morning - but nothing more than that.

The system that "may" and I mean "may" give us a decent snow threat comes at us Saturday night and Sunday (Jan 12-13),

check out the 2 images below... thess are from the ECMWF 12Z sunday (jan 6) model run....

the 6 day H5 height prog valid Saturday 12Z jan 12, shows a strong shortwave moving across the southern plains, notice placement of the H5 jetstreak with this shortwave... vort max would be strungout somewhat and located from near OKC southwest into the TX panhandle. By 12 Sunday, the shortwave sharpens somewhat (strengthens) with H5 jetstreak located from No AL, northeast into western Virginia. vort max would likely be located somewhere across western TN... !!! That's pretty good for snow around here!! I did not post the H85 charts but 850 temps were in the -1 to -3 range... marginal but with where the dynamics are progged to be next weekend, both the sfc and H85 lows would go south of us - good for potential snow... stay tuned!!!!