Monday, 1/21 - Late evening update

Really sorry about the lack of posts recently...

Well, another weak system for the region late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

A system will cut north of our region the next 12 to 18 hours. This will keep all the "good" snow accumulations well north of our area and to the north of an arctic boundary. Around here, decent WAA and moisture transport across the Ohio Valley associated with the afore mentioned system will combine to bring us some patchy light snow for a few hours Tuesday morning.

This system is fighting lots and lots of dry air in the low layers of the atmosphere.

The progged NAM 12 hr sounding indicated the entire column is expected to moisten enough to allow light snow to reach the ground around the morning commute.

Check out the RUC 12 hr H7 heights and moisture field valid 15z Tuesday.... the mid levels are already drying out. Bottom line, our light snow will be short lived with only a few Hundreths of QPF spit out by the various models.

Snow amounts will be very light - less than 1 inch everywhere with many locations picking up just a dusting.

Wednesday is a quiet day as we are between systems, High pressure ridging in place - slides east in the afternoon allowing backing to occur aloft as the next short wave and associated arctic front drops south from the northern plains states.

The arctic boundary will shift through Wednesday night alnog with an H5 shortwave. A band of light snow a flurries will likely accompany the front Wednesday night - with minor accumulations likely once again. GFS progged soundings for Thursday show strong CAA with H9 temps -16 to -20C and nearly saturated.... more than enough for lingering flurries Thursday morning..

There are signs that this colder pattern may be breaking down again... major trough to set up across the western US with arctic air intrusions for pacific NW and northern Rockies.

A flat east coast / southeast US ridge will develop as a result of the western trough.

Cold air retreats well north as temperatures once again rebound to levels above to well above average next week across the Ohio Valley. 50s and possibly some 60s may return to the region by next Monday and Tuesday!