Friday Late Evening Update

This is going to be a short one tonight... It's Friday night afterall !

Quiet conditions expected for the first part of the weekend.... On Sunday, a shortwave with a couple of vort centers will approach the Ohio Valley. One vort (the stronger of the two) passes south, the other somewhat minors out (i.e. weakens as it moves southeast towards us and then eventually merges (phases) with the southern energy.

What it basically means for us... chances for some patchy light rain Sunday - which may change to a brief period of light snow or flurries Sunday night before ending as colder air shifts south into our area.

Monday - deep moisture is gone, but low level moisture will remain quite high for low clouds - especially in the morning. In addition, temps will be in the -8 to -10 C range in the cloud layer which will likely be cold enough to generate ice crystal growth and as a result a few flurries.

The forecast really gets interesting later next week... polar vortex develops in southern Canada.

That will send arctic air southward into the U.S. The polar front may stall across the lower TN valley or northern areas of the deep south. This could set the stage for a decent winter event across the Ohio Valley late next week. Latest 00Z GFS is progging a strong shortwave to swing through the base of the mean longwave trough that will extend south from the Polar vortex in Canada. It's this shortwave that could bring us snow - ice - or perhaps both... Too early to tell exactly what precip-type will be - but the potential is there. Still a week to go so things can and likely will change some - but it does appear a much colder weather pattern will setup across the Ohio Valley next week, and likely into the following week as well.