Thursday Morning Update...

The next big storm is knocking on our door... only this time, NO SEVERE STORMS, BUT areas north of Louisville in southern Indiana are looking at a pretty big ICE STORM.

A large storm system will push across the Ohio Valley Tonight into Friday morning. All models have indeed converged on what the GFS solution has been saying all along - the H5, H7, H85 centers all go north of the Ohio River - Again that means NO BIG SNOW FOR THE VIEWING AREA.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for about the northern third of our viewing area (NOT Louisville). Actually that warning placement looks real good to me - not for significant snow - but instead for significant sleet and mainly a freezing rain event. Our "in house" programs were suggesting anywhere from .50" to 1.00" of ice accumulation in the warned area. It is possible with that much icing, we could see power outages as winds increase overnight and tomorrow - again over the winter storm warning areas. If there is some good news it's that there's even some indication that the substantial freezing rain area may even be a bit farther north than what we're talking about here - we'll watch it close.

In Louisville, we look for a mix of sleet and rain to develop this evening - with just a general cold rain to take over as the night wears on. Because of the recent cold weather, there will likely be some icing on suspended objects form a time tonight, until the low level WAA really takes over and washes any ice accumulations away. I don't think we'll see any major roads problems in Louisville as surface temperatures will likely be at or just above 32 degrees. Areas south of Louisville will also see a cold rain developing this evening - with possibly some sleet mixed in for a time at the start of the precipitation - but rain will be the dominant precip type and little / no problems expected.

This storm will deposit 6 to 12 inches of snow well west and north of our area basically from southeast Missouri - northeast across Illinois - into northern Indiana and lower Michigan.

The storm will push away from the region tomorrow... As the low pushes by, winds will switch to the west, northwest and become very gusty. In addition, some light snow and / or flurries will be likely with only minor accumulations (at best) in Louisville and up to an inch or so for our northern counties of the viewing area.

Quiet weather returns for the first full weekend of February. Have a great Day!

Wednesday Morning Update

Well, another long delay on my part... sorry for that - actually was REALLY "under the weather" the past 5 days or so....

quite the wind event last night !! First the narrow line of showers and storms on the front producing wind anywhere from 50 to 70 mph, and then the 2 to 3 hours of 30 to 55 mph post frontal winds as the colder air was spilling in... Lots and lots of wind damage reports - For the latest list, go to http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/.

Okay the next system is quickly approaching. There's been lots of talk from others about significant snow here...... I DON'T THINK SO !!. The GFS is no doubt the model of choice and has been very consistant in its handling of this next storm. H5 low, H7 low, H85 low all go north of the Ohio river.. That ain't good snowmaking weather for us !!! So far this winter, the snowtrack has been from the southern / central plains northeast into the midwest and lower Great Lakes. This storm WILL follow that same pattern.

So, what does it mean for us ??? Thickening clouds will give way to light precip later on Thursday. I do think we could see some sleet mixed in with the rain initially as the atmosphere is moistening and we get some evap. cooling taking place. Should eventually go over to all rain as strong WAA in the low layers wins out.

Storm pulls away from region Friday morning. We'll see some patchy light snow and or flurries on the back side but LITTLE / NO ACCUMULATION expected from this storm in Louisville. Minor accumulations (at best) will be possible in out northern most counties of the viewing area (and even that could be a stretch).

Friday, will be a cold and wintry day with the afore mentioned flurries and the gusty west / northwest winds behind the storm. The BIG snow with this storm will be across S. Missouri - northeast across Illinois into northern half of Indiana - northeast into Lower Michigan.

Sorry snow lovers !! Look at the bright side... Ground Hog day is Saturday and Phil will likely see his shadow ----- 6 more weeks of winter weather !!!! yeah right, whatever !

Have a great day.

Precip will

Wednesday late evening update

After a quiet but chilly Wednesday across the region, another surge of cold air will drop south into the Ohio Valley for Thursday and last into Friday.
A few flurries will be possible along and just behind the front into early Thursday.

Strong CAA (cold air advection) in the low levels will battle lots of sunshine Thursday afternoon. H9 temps progged to drop from near -9C Thursday morning to -15/-16C by midday. Than in itself should hold temps steady in the upper teens to near 20F or perhaps cause them to slowly fall .












Ridging aloft and at the sfc builds in Thursday night. Low layers will decouple as sfc high drifts overhead - idea for radiational cooling - temperatures will likely drop into the single digits by Friday morning.












Warm advection clouds will sweep over the region Friday night but with very dry low levels... no precip is expected.











Ready for some warmer news ???? On Sunday and early next week, much warmer air starts flooding into the region with H85 temps warming to near +10C by Monday evening!!




Temperatures will respond and push well into the 50s (with some locations nearing the 60s) early next week.




It won't last long though... a strong cold front will sweep the area during the Tuesday time frame bringing rain and colder temperatures back into the Ohio Valley.

In addition, it appears the colder than average temperatures will try to make a return for mid/late next week into early February as some of the MRF (medium range forecast) models develop a new polar vortex (PV) in central Canada with the mean trough from the PV down into the central US.

A snowstorm late next week ?????????? The GFS is fairly bullish with that prospect and has consistantly had a storm moving across the Eastern half of the country the past several runs - The problem.... the details (i.e. exact track / thermal profiles etc...) of the MRF guidance this far out is usually not that good - as a matter of fact it typically blows beyond 5 to 7 days....

We'll continue to watch and keep you updated, stay warm gang.

Tuesday - Late morning update

What a nice snowfall across the region !!! It wasn't a lot ... generally around 1 inch, but still a real pretty sight. Actually I was a bit surprised to see that we had a solid inch in Louisville (with even a few spots a little more north of the metro), simply because of how fast the low layers of the atmosphere moistened up earlier this morning. I got home from work at around 2am and we still had a mid deck with dew points in the single numbers, 2 hours later with a sfc temp of 38 degrees I looked outside and it was already snowing ! That's impressive. Bottom line, snow began about 2 hours earlier than expected so instead of a dusting to less than 1 inch around the area, we picked up a half inch to around 1 inch - and as mentioned, a few spots north of louisville, a little more. (CLICK ON ABOVE LINK FOR SNOW AMOUNTS)

Alright, looking ahead... another fast moving arctic blast is on the way.. Shortwave energy digging south towards the Ohio Valley and its associated sfc cold front will clip through here Wednesday night. Patchy light snow and/or flurries will accompany this system Wedenesday night into Thursday. Progged H9 temps for Thursday AM - likely to be anywhere from -16 to -19C !!! and saturated -- more than cold enough for ice crystal generation and as a result some flurries or patchy light snow. Temperatures will be very cold on Thursday and hold in the teens with single numbers likely Thursday night / Friday morning.

The next system then starts to affect us later Friday night into Saturday. This system - like the ones before it, will cut north of us. A southerly flow and strong WAA created by the approaching system will lead to another round of precipitation. At this time it looks likely this precip will be wintry again and begin as snow or a sleet/snow mix - quickly race through and may end briefly as some drizzle Saturday morning. Accumulations will be possible but also quite light again.

A pattern shift is coming, This weekend into next week, a mean trough will be developing across the western US witha flat ridge across the eastern US. This will bring a return to the milder weather across the Ohio Valley as progged H85 temps climb anywhere from +6 to +10C. Temperatures will respond nicely and climb back into the 50s (possibly even 60s) next week.

Monday, 1/21 - Late evening update

Really sorry about the lack of posts recently...

Well, another weak system for the region late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

A system will cut north of our region the next 12 to 18 hours. This will keep all the "good" snow accumulations well north of our area and to the north of an arctic boundary. Around here, decent WAA and moisture transport across the Ohio Valley associated with the afore mentioned system will combine to bring us some patchy light snow for a few hours Tuesday morning.

This system is fighting lots and lots of dry air in the low layers of the atmosphere.

The progged NAM 12 hr sounding indicated the entire column is expected to moisten enough to allow light snow to reach the ground around the morning commute.

Check out the RUC 12 hr H7 heights and moisture field valid 15z Tuesday.... the mid levels are already drying out. Bottom line, our light snow will be short lived with only a few Hundreths of QPF spit out by the various models.

Snow amounts will be very light - less than 1 inch everywhere with many locations picking up just a dusting.

Wednesday is a quiet day as we are between systems, High pressure ridging in place - slides east in the afternoon allowing backing to occur aloft as the next short wave and associated arctic front drops south from the northern plains states.

The arctic boundary will shift through Wednesday night alnog with an H5 shortwave. A band of light snow a flurries will likely accompany the front Wednesday night - with minor accumulations likely once again. GFS progged soundings for Thursday show strong CAA with H9 temps -16 to -20C and nearly saturated.... more than enough for lingering flurries Thursday morning..

There are signs that this colder pattern may be breaking down again... major trough to set up across the western US with arctic air intrusions for pacific NW and northern Rockies.

A flat east coast / southeast US ridge will develop as a result of the western trough.

Cold air retreats well north as temperatures once again rebound to levels above to well above average next week across the Ohio Valley. 50s and possibly some 60s may return to the region by next Monday and Tuesday!

Wednesday Morning Update...

All seems to be in good shape with going forecast...

High level clouds will continue to advect and thicken across the region this afternoon but certainly no precipitation is expected. Tonight, the moisture will continue to thicken and lead to some patchy light rain and snow across the NewsChannel 32 viewing area.

This precip will be quite light though as we will be inbetween 2 storm systems. One storm developing to our northwest - producing moderate to heavy snowfall for E. Nebraska, Iowa, -northeast into WI, and the other down near the Gulf coast producing some heavy rainfall there.















In our region, we'll some the moisture... but weak lifting from a minored out H5 shortwave and the weak WAA in place will only mean light precipitation - - - - which leads me to p-type.....

Boundary layer temperatures at precip start time (around midnight or a little after) will initially be at/above critical. So a little rain may initially occur but then should quickly transition over to wet snow with the aid of evaporational cooling and the fact that it will be dark.













Snowfall amounts will be very light and occur mainly on grassy areas. A dusting to around a half inch seems quite likely with this system and that should be about it.

Light snow and light rain will end Thursday morning followed by cloudy skies and near 40 degree temps for the afternoon.

Cold air blast looks to still be on track... arctic boundary moves through overnight Friday - making for a very cold weekend. Temperatures are still expected to be some of the coldest yet this season. Saturday morning - we will likely wake up to upper teens to near 20 but then slowly fall to the mid teens in the afternoon with wind chills at / below zero.













Still think temperatures will dip well into single digits Saturday night / Sunday morning.

Football lovers - huge playoff weekend ! Lets talk Green Bay, I'm told by John Boel that Eli Manning (NY Giants QB) has NEVER played a football game in temps below the middle 20s. Guess what !!!??? in Green Bay on Sunday game time temps: NEAR ZERO.

Tuesday Morning Update

Want big snowfall..... ????? start heading towards the central plains and upper midwest, because it is not going to happen here - at least this week or upcoming weekend.

Going forecast looks to be on target.

we'll be inbetween storm systems for Wednesday night and Thursday. One storm along the Gulf coast and the other and stronger of the two, across the central plains and upper midwest.

The storm to our northwest will become the dominant storm this week. Heavy snowfall will develop with this system from Eastern NE - northeast across Iowa into the upper midwest / western Lakes.

The other storm will hug the Gulf coast and eventually push toward the Carolinas.So, where does this leave us ?? kind of in limbo !

Moisture will begin increasing over our region late Wednesday / Wed night into Thursday.

Some (not a lot) "lift" (i.e. rising motion) will arrive late Wed. night / early Thursday as a weakening shortwave (H5) moves through the broad and strengthening southwesterly that is setting up ahead of the Central plains system and combines with the WAA (warm air advection) in progress.

This moisture and lift will provide us with some patchy LIGHT snow and flurries - and it may actually come down with some light rain mixed in too - because of the fact that this precip will be so light, it may not be heavy enough to completely saturate the column and cool the lowest layers below critical.

This will occur quickly as this batch of light precipitation will end by midday Thursday.

Accumulations of snow????? NOT MUCH. LESS THAN 1 INCH WITH MANY AREAS LITTLE / NO ACCUMULATION.

A cold front front will sweep the region Thursday evening - likely bringing a few flurries back into the Ohio Valley as some colder air slides in behind the frontal passage.

The big dump of cold air is still due to arrive Friday night as an arctic boundary rapidly surges south. This will likely bring flurries and sct'd snow showers to the region and the coldest air of the season so far.

Check out the progged H85 temps from the GFS by 18Z Sat. Still in the -20 to -22C range.

Temps will likely hold in the teens on Saturday and drop to near the single digits Saturday morning and well into the single digits by Sunday morning.

BTW, this will be just the first of perhaps several arctic surges with this pattern. Another surge of arctic air will head for the region next week around the Wednesday time frame.