Wednesday (Sept 1st)

Great weather to continue across our region... lots of sunshine and hot conditions today with temperatures in the low/mid 90s. The only rain chance I see over the next 7 to 10 days will come with a rather substantial cold front later Thursday night into Friday morning.

Once this front clear the region, much cooler air will filter into the Ohio Valley for a good 2 to 3 days. H85 progged temps and mixing schemes suggest afternoon highs will only climb into upper 70s on Saturday - about perfect for the U of L - UK football game. The great weather will last all the way through the long holiday weekend as well.

Upper ridging will return to the eastern U.S. next week allowing for above to well above temperatures to return to the region once again.

Here's the early morning update on Earl...

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...LARGE HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD EAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 71.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO PARRAMORE ISLAND
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

JC

Tuesday Morning (Aug 31) Update

Certainly more heat expected across the region... H850 temps and mixing schemes suggest mid/upper 90s possible through Thursday with NO rain expected. However, by Thursday night into Friday morning, rain chances will go up as a cold front sweeps the region. This front will also usher in much cooler air for the long holiday weekend.
Quick look at the U of L / UK game... Beautiful weather !!!!!!! Lots of sun,very low humidities and temperatures in the 70s (to near 80 at best) for highs. Enjoy !!!!!

Here's the latest from the hurricane center on "Earl".

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24ANWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010700 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THEVIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AS POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL MOVES AWAY FROMTHESE ISLANDS...SUMMARY OF 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...20.7N 67.2WABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICOABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLANDMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HRPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HRMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTORICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLAND.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDSA TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMASINTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITORTHE PROGRESS OF EARL.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGINISLANDS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TOYOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTSISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVINGTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURNTOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NORTHWESTWARDMOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECASTTRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO AND THEVIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND CROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC EAST OFTHE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITHHIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THESAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTHARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THEBRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY. STRONGERWINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN INPUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOSPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISHIN PUERTO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLEIN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGINISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALAMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EARL. THESERAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

Jay

Thursday Update...

Great weather continues across the regio today. High pressure both at he surface and aloft will keep things very quiet through the Holiday weekend.

Once the ridge axis shifts east and we get on the backside picking up more of a return flow, H85 temps will rebound rather quickly allowing for sfc temperatures to climb back into the 90s.

June was one for the record books - at least at the official reporting spot in Louisville (the airport). It turned out to be the warmest June of all time.

Check out this info (link) courtesy The Louisville NWS office: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=54392&source=0

Jay

Tuesday Update

It's been a while.... I took a nice long vacation with my wife and kids and it was great ! Thanks to Matt, Jared, and Susanne for filling in for me.

Weather wise... more of the same today. High heat and humidity! Heat index values approaching 100 degrees this afternoon. Combination of weak front, moderate instability, Pwat's 1.5 and higher, and weak upper disturbances riding through the upper flow should give rise to another active afternoon and evening. Storms expected to fire again later today in high heat and humidity. Storms should become organized to our north and west along weak boundary which is also where effective bulk shear will be supportive for some severe storm activity. These storms should ride into the region as the late day / evening hours wear on.

Here's SPC's outlook: looks real good to me.

Good news in that the humidity will break some for tomorrow (Wed). Temperatures will stay very warm to hot the rest of the week into the upcoming weekend.

Jay

Friday Update...

Upper system slowly spinning through the region today. Unsettled weather expected through this evening. Looks as if scattered showers and storms will refire across the region later today as another vort lobe rotating around the upper low moves through the Ohio Valley.

Check out the water vapor image...

The first wave / vort lobe that triggered last night's scattered showers - most which missed Louisville, is now well north. The next vort lobe is to our west and that combined with some diurnal heating - along with weak sfc frontal convergence should be enough to initiate the showers and storms later today.

A few of the storms could be strong and SPC has us in a SLGT for later today.

Upper system is expected to clear the region for the weekend with improving weather conditions. Big pattern change coming... mean trough sets up out west with a resultant huge ridge developing across the Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valleys. As this occurs, upper energy sliding south on the eastern flank of the amplifying ridge will eventually close off into a weak H5 circulation under the ridge - almost resembling a rex block.

Bottom line for us.... much warmer weather on the way starting this weekend and into next week - likely lasting through the holiday weekend. H85 temps are progged to be anywhere from 15 to 18C which easily translates to mid/upper 80s.

Rain chances:

After today and tonight... yes there will be slight chances early next week (mainly the typical pop-up type summer activity) due to the wet ground adding some extra moisture to the atmosphere and the afore mentioned weakness sliding south on the east flank of the upper ridge. But overall those chances look to be 20% or less at this time so officially we're going to keep it out of our 7day for now. Could this change ?? sure, but for now we're gonna be optimistic.

Have a nice weekend all,

Jay

Monday Update...

A big thanks and hello to all who made the Pitt Academy Bar-B-Q a great success again this year. The event took place at Pitt Academy off Preston Hwy this past Saturday and it was a great time. We raised lots of money again for Pitt Academy which - btw, is a school for special needs children. So again, thank you to all the volunteers, sponsors, St Pius X cooking team from Owensboro, and of course all who showed up or ordered carry out in support of the event and school.

What a lousy Sunday !!! overrunning / deformation type rain all day. System will be slow to move out the next 2 to 3 days. Deformation zone rain has been displaced to the north today so we won't get the steady rains we had yesterday but having said that, a couple of vort lobes traveling around the upper low will keep things unsettled. Shower chances will continue for today (Monday) along with some spotty drizzle. CAPE values increase some especially southern areas so even a local t'storm will be possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday don't look that nice either. We'll be stuck under the cyclonic curvature zone of this sytem so lots of low clouds expected - some spotty drizzle or even a brief shower possible.

Finally for Thursday it looks as if we'll get a brief break as we'll be inbetween systems - but it won't last long. By Thursday night and Friday... the next upper wave will begin affecting us.

Another round of showers and storms will be possible at this time.

The good news... it looks like this late week wave will lift out of here allowing for short-wave ridging to take hold and nice weather to return for the weekend!

We'll keep you posted.

Jay

Thursday Update...

GM all, well overall the forecast put out for this week on Monday's blog entry has worked out pretty well.

Today looks to be a nice, breezy, summer-like day. Quite a bit convective debris (high clouds) from last night's activity out west - but overall we'll see some filtered sun and warm temperatures.

Big system (H5 short) out west will continue to ride up and over the big southeast ridge. Showers and storms will continue to be quite numerous for areas to our west and north throughout today and this evening. Frontal boundary associated with this feature will sag south into the lower Ohio Valley late tonight into Friday morning. This will be our next best chance for showers and a few storms. However, this activity looks to be scattered as the best support (upper dynamics) stay well north of us and frontal timing is not good - late at night / early morning when instability will be at its lowest.

The front will sag south throughout the day on Friday taking the better chances of renewed convection - due to frontal convergence and increasing daytime instability - to the south of Louisville over southern KY for the afternoon hours.

The weekend: Looks okay. Shortwave ridging builds in Friday night and Saturday. Dry weather expected and continued mild conditions. I do think we'll see quite a bit of high cloudiness moving back in on Saturday as the afore mentioned short wave ridge is rather flat. The next system will begin impacting us on Sunday (likely late day). Much of Sunday looks dry but a dying band of convection out west will be spreading eastward towards our region. As a result, clouds will be on the increase and thickening Sunday with even a few light showers possible later in the day.

We'll keep you posted...
Jay